Closing summary
And, on that note, we will be closing the blog for today.
The EU’s foreign policy chief has warned against “walking into the traps that Russia is setting” as she said Moscow was trying to start a debate about European security in order to divert attention from its aggression (11:04, 16:54).
Her comments came on the sidelines of EU leaders’ meeting in Dublin, Ireland called to discuss the latest on Ukraine, including Europe’s representations in any future talks (9:53, 10:21, 10:39, 11:35, 11:52, 12:12, 13:41, 14:15), and AI (15:13, 17:32).
Several leaders also called for more support for Ukraine ahead of “tough, tough” winter as Russian attacks continue (10:30, 12:38).
The meeting comes amid increasingly heated debate on potential peace talks with Russia and Moscow’s maximalist demands (15:57).
Elsewhere,
Belgian prime minister Bart De Wever will meet his coalition partners for crunch budget talks on Friday, as they seek to agree cost-cutting measures before a Monday deadline (17:19).
Dutch prime minister Rob Jetten is also holding crisis talks with his coalition partners after his minority government got into trouble this week over a tax reform deal with opposition parties (17:24).
Sweden’s Centre party has emerged as kingmakers that could decide the next Swedish government, with two rival blocs set to present their offers by the end of the day today (11:35).
If you have any tips, comments or suggestions, email me at jakub.krupa@theguardian.com.
I am also on Bluesky at @jakubkrupa.bsky.social and on X at @jakubkrupa.
EU leaders warn 'independence cannot be outsourced' as they call for joint action on AI
Back in Dublin, the leaders are still wrapping up their talks, with at least some of them seemingly inspired by what they heard about AI today.
After their session with Mistral AI founder, Artur Mensch, France’s Emmanuel Macron has warned fellow leaders that “our independence cannot be outsourced” as he called for more investments into AI.
“We have the talent, the energy and the technology. Now we need to invest more, make decisions faster and, above all, act together,” he said.
Macron added he would host another summit with ‘tech creators’ on 2 December in Paris, co-hosted with the Netherlands’ Jetten.
Poland’s Donald Tusk struck a similarly urgent tone, saying “our next race is the AI race.”
“By joining forces, Europe gains much more scale, power and influence. By coordinating our efforts, we can all be 27 times more productive, access 27 times more services and speed up our growth,” he said.
“Let’s stop funding our ambitions separately, work together and secure Europe’s place in the AI revolution.”
Updated
Dutch PM Jetten locked in coalition crisis talks after disagreements over tax reform
Over in the Netherlands, prime minister Rob Jetten is also holding crisis talks with his coalition partners after his minority government got into trouble this week over a tax reform deal with opposition parties.
The terms of the deal angered the right-wing People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy, or VVD, which voted against the reform and expressed its frustration with the move.
Jetten skipped the EU summit in Dublin (11:52) and has been locked for several hours now with the other party leaders in hope of finding a way forward.
“No one is waiting for endless political squabbling in The Hague or for new elections, and we must do everything in our power to find a way forward together,” he told reporters.
Updated
Belgian government holds crunch budget talks to avoid collapse
Belgian prime minister Bart De Wever will meet his coalition partners for crunch budget talks on Friday, as they seek to agree cost-cutting measures before a Monday deadline.
De Wever, a Flemish conservative, offered his resignation to King Philippe earlier this month after his five-party coalition failed to reach a deal on the 2027 budget.
But the monarch refused to accept it and told him instead to report back on 16 November.
Coalition members are to gather on Friday evening and De Wever’s office has indicated talks could run into the weekend, AFP reported.
Train disasters drive passengers away from Spain's high-speed network, experts worry
Spain’s two deadly train accidents this year have driven passengers away from the world’s second-largest high-speed rail network, a concern for a country heavily reliant on tourism and business travel, experts and business groups said, as reported by Reuters.
According to competition watchdog CNMC’s data, the number of long-distance high-speed rail passengers fell 15% in January-June to 18.7 million following January’s high-speed train collision near the village of Adamuz in southern Spain that killed 46 people, with most travellers switching to rental cars and domestic flights. Based on Reuters’ calculations, that was almost six times the impact a 30-day closure of the line might normally be expected to have.
The 28 October collision, which killed 69 people, shut the Madrid-Andalusia high-speed line for the second time in nine months, forcing its nearly 19,000 daily passengers to seek alternatives. The line remains closed.
The impact of the latest crash is yet to be quantified but is likely to be heavier, experts say, as they fear further erosion of confidence in Spain, the world’s second-most visited country after France, as a safe travel destination.
“All accidents are serious, but when you have two within just nine months ... you have a strong impact on reputation,” said Juan Pedro Aznar, a researcher at Esade business school, adding that restoring confidence would require making technical fixes a political priority.
Canadian tourist Isobel Hamilton, 50, said the latest crash prompted her and her husband to change plans and travel outside Madrid by bus.
“We were uncomfortable about keeping a rail trip in our plans ... Even if everything had been restored and was running normally I probably would still have chosen to take the bus.”
Related: Spain’s deadly train crashes have damaged public confidence in the system
Storm Charles passes Portugal without major damage
Storm Charles has brought destructive weather to the Iberian peninsula this week, particularly in Portugal and the far south of Spain.
But despite the intense weather warnings, the storm passed over Portugal without leaving the destruction the country had widely feared in its wake, after the authorities ordered schools closed as a precaution, AFP noted.
One person was wounded and four people were evacuated as a result of the storm, national civil protection chief Mario Silvestre told a press conference, while some flooding and falling trees were recorded.
Related: Storm Charles causes floods and flight cancellations across southern Europe
Ex-helicopter engineer poised to be Germany’s first female president
in Berlin
Germany has had 12 presidents since the end of the second world war, all of them men. Now, for the first time, the federal republic is on the brink of getting a female head of state. But Ilse Aigner, the lead candidate for the post, is unusual in more ways than one.
“No law degree. No marriage. No penis,” is how the left-leaning Taz newspaper put it this week – a wry, if blunt, assessment of what a break with history the 61-year-old Bavarian represents.
Friedrich Merz, Germany’s Christian Democrat (CDU) chancellor, put Aigner forward as his candidate this week after months of speculation, saying it was “high time” a woman took up the role.
If elected in January, Aigner will succeed Frank-Walter Steinmeier in what is a largely ceremonial role but nonetheless Germany’s highest state position. And as she has the backing not only of Merz’s CDU but his Social Democrat partners and the opposition Greens, little is standing in her way.
Let’s take a quick look at other news from across Europe.
Russia is ‘setting traps’ in Ukraine talks, EU foreign policy chief warns
in Dublin
The EU’s foreign policy chief has warned against “walking into the traps that Russia is setting” as she said Moscow was trying to start a debate about European security in order to divert attention from its aggression.
“We have one aggressor and one victim, and the aggressor does not have security concerns,” Kaja Kallas said on arrival at an EU leaders’ summit in Dublin. “Nobody has ever attacked them. They have attacked others. I mean, keep the focus, people.”
In talks on the Ukraine war, Russia has revived its hardline demands for a total overhaul of European security – demands that were rejected in 2021 because they were seen as an infringement of the sovereignty of central and eastern European countries. The latest round of talks between Ukraine, Russia and the US were held this week in Abu Dhabi.
Donald Trump’s envoy and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, said on Thursday night that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to expand the next round of peace negotiations to include the Europeans. However, Russia quickly contradicted that assurance.
European leaders have long said they will support Ukraine in any peace talks, but want to see a ceasefire before negotiations. They also stress the continent has an extensive web of security agreements that Russia has violated.
Related: Russia is ‘setting traps’ in Ukraine talks, EU foreign policy chief warns
Reported Russian demands on Ukraine, Europe have no chance of succeeding - snap analysis
Meanwhile, German tabloid Bild has reported on what it says are the key Russian demands put forward in negotiations with Europe, Ukraine, the US.
It includes a number of maximalist demands which would dramatically alter the security landscape for Ukraine and Europe.
We already knew about some of them – for example, Russia’s demand to keep the occupied Ukrainian territories and the entire Donbas region, demilitarise Ukrainian ports and keep Ukraine out of Nato – but there are also some new ones, including a reported request that Nato should not have any bases in the Baltics and that Finland, which only joined in 2023, should be made to leave the alliance.
The list also includes new proposals on Moldova, which Moscow reportedly wants to turn into a federal republic and then force referendums on the future of two of its regions, Transnistria and Gaugazia.
If this list is true – which we do not know that and have not been able to independently verify it – it is probably fair to say that it’s just not going to work and will only anger Europeans at the time when the US wants to get them formally involved in the process.
Ukraine has been repeatedly clear that it has no intention of giving away the temporarily occupied territories, and even less of signing off the parts that are actually still controlled by Kyiv.
And Finland’s defence minister Antti Häkkänen also made it clear that the demand on Finland’s Nato membership has no chance of succeeding.
“These matters are not up for negotiation. Russia knows that and it’s absolutely outrageous to even suggest this,” he said, quoted by Finnish public broadcaster yle. “Finland will not be forced out [of Nato],” he added.
The chairman of the Finnish parliament’s foreign affairs committee, Johannes Koskinen, told reporters that “if such a paper or demand has been submitted, it will go straight into the bin,” IS reported.
Lithuanian foreign minister Kęstutis Budrys also made it clear earlier this week that Lithuania would block any agreement giving Russia the power to stop Nato deployments in the region.
So, that’s pretty unequivocal then.
Updated
While there’s a lot of foreign policy discussion happening in Dublin, another key issue is the race in artificial intelligence, with EU leaders trying to strike a balance between not falling behind against the US and China while also trying to protect citizens from some of the associated risks.
Roberta Metsola, president of the European parliament, said she was tired of hearing that the EU had “somehow lost the AI race”.
“We have world class talent, we have a great... ecosystem from a technology perspective,” the president of the European Parliament told reporters before the summit began.
It’s worth noting that while Anthropic and OpenAI often dominate headlines, Europe has its own frontier lab, Mistral, which focused on delivering an open-weight model.
For her part, foreign policy chief Kallas warned about a “dark side of AI”, citing the example of how its being used in warfare.
Updated
Europe needs to show it can 'contribute' before being allowed to join Ukraine talks, Russia says
Meanwhile, the Kremlin said that Europe must show it is ready to contribute to the Ukraine peace process before a decision is made on letting Europeans join the negotiations.
The comment by Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov suggests Russia has not yet committed to including Europeans in the next round of talks, despite US negotiators saying on Thursday that president Vladimir Putin had agreed to their participation, Reuters said.
Asked if peace talks would soon resume with the added participation of Europeans, Peskov said:
“Once we understand their genuine intention and readiness to contribute to the peace process, then it will be possible to make a decision on holding dialogue on a Ukrainian settlement in an expanded format.“
He added:
“If the Europeans really do have someone who is at least authorised in some way to talk, and if the Europeans really do have the desire to do so, then, of course, we will be ready to talk to them.”
'Please, no surprises,' Merz urges Trump ahead of his meeting with Putin in China
Speaking in Dublin, German chancellor Friedrich Merz pleaded for US president Donald Trump to create no surprises during expected talks about Ukraine next week with Russian president Vladimir Putin in China.
“Some here in Dublin fear this could turn into a ‘second Anchorage moment’,” said Merz on the sidelines of a meeting of EU leaders, as reported by Reuters.
“I therefore want to state our message to the United States very clearly: please, no surprises. Continue to play as part of ’Team Europe’ and ’Team Ukraine’”.
Merz also said that Europe does not need to discuss the European security architecture with Russia, a new Russian demand in any peace process on Ukraine.
“Russia wants to talk about questions of a European security architecture. We do not need to discuss that, it already exists,” Merz said, adding it was a “given” his country would be part of any European delegation, AFP reported.
Updated
German drone maker supplying Ukraine reports cyberattack
Meanwhile, German defence group Quantum Systems faced a cyberattack last month that prompted the German military to briefly ground its fleet of the company’s drones, with suspicion falling on Russia, sources told AFP.
Attackers are increasingly targeting European defence firms supplying Ukraine for its fight against Russia.
Quantum, a producer of reconnaissance drones and other unmanned systems based near Munich, said “hostile actors” launched the cyberattack in late October.
“The threat was contained thanks to the swift response of our IT and security teams in close and transparent collaboration with the authorities,” it said in a statement.
There was no risk to operations of the firm’s systems, it said. The company declined to give further details.
Denmark's Frederiksen urges more help for Ukraine to help it get through 'tough, tough' winter
Fun aside, the host camera captured an interesting exchange between Ireland and Denmark’s Frederiksen, with the Danish PM stressing to the Irish leader the importance of agreeing on a winter support package for Ukraine.
She said more help was needed to “get them through a tough, tough winter.”
“So if everybody could put something on the table, that would be very welcome,” she said.
Some other fun nuggets from the doorstep (10:53) include Croatia’s Andrej Plenković joking that Ireland’s Martin “is always here” rooted in the same spot where he welcomes the leaders.
Meanwhile, Poland’s Donald Tusk got a cheerful “dzień dobry” – good morning in Polish – from the official leading him through the building.
And if you’re wondering what the leaders are talking about between themselves on the doorstep, then I’m afraid the answer is very boring: it’s mostly the weather.
Several other leaders also remarked on how beautiful Dublin looks in the morning sun, with their arrival handler joking: “it’s always like that in Dublin in November… almost.”
The only two who had any, let’s say, doubts about the weather were, unsurprisingly, two southern leaders: Cyprus’s Nikos Christodoulides and Greece’s Kyriakos Mitsotakis.
In contrast, Germany’s Friedrich Merz, Finland’s Petteri Orpo, Sweden’s Ulf Kristersson, Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen and Austria’s Christian Stocker even opted for a nice stroll to the venue together.
This caused a bit of a diplomatic protocol challenge in terms of who should go through the door to see Ireland’s Micheál Martin first, with everyone stuck in an awkward cycle of pointing and “oh, please” until Merz eventually suggested Frederiksen go first, suggesting “ladies first.”
“Lady first,” she said, with a bit of a side eye, and stepped ahead.
Apparently, last night’s dinner at the National Gallery, prepared by Mark Moriarty, was also “excellent,” I am sure you would want to know – so much so that France’s Emmanuel Macron went to see the chef to praise him.
The food included smoked wild salmon from Cork, Wicklow-reared beef, cabbage grown in Dublin, and rapeseed oil produced in Donegal, RTÉ reported.
Well, now you know.
Either way, the doors to the meeting room are now closed, and the discussions under way.
Updated
Meanwhile, Latvian PM Andris Kulbergs has a strong entry for the quote of the day competition, as he said “we, as Europe, have to grow some bigger balls.”
“I think we as Europe have to grow some bigger balls, because we are bigger in size, … in military might, in all the economic aspects.
Look where is Russia: Russia is not capable of even taking such an, in size, in population, smaller power as Ukraine, which is showing a great, great spirit and fighting back [for the] fifth year.
And Russia is [now] raising points that we have no accept? Sorry, that’s the aggressor, losing on the frontline. We should be raising our expectations, what has to be done in terms of Ukraine’s security.”
Hungary’s Péter Magyar is also here, looking very elegant as always…
… but it looks like he took a slight detour on the way back to hotel last night to try and pour a perfect pint of Guinness.
Can’t blame him.
“Hold my beer,” he said on Instagram.
Benelux 'on the side of Ukraine' as 'neither Americans nor Russians can decide our future' for us, Luxembourg's Frieden says
Luxembourg’s PM Luc Frieden is in a slightly unusual position this morning as he is representing as many as three countries at today’s meeting in Dublin.
Belgian and Dutch PMs have skipped the summit as they face political problems at home, leaving Frieden with three hats and representing not his usual 690,000 people, but some 30 million people today.
But he is confident he’s got it:
“We had a meeting of the Benelux prime ministers two days ago in Maastricht. And so I know that when I speak here on their behalf, that on the fundamental issues that are being discussed here today – Ukraine, AI – we are very much aligned.”
He says he has got “some of their speaking points” from Belgium and the Netherlands to help him get through the meeting today.
He stressed that the three Benelux countries “are on the side of Ukraine,” and that “there is need for solidarity of all 27 member states” on further financial support for Kyiv.
On who should represent the EU in any future talks, he said “we cannot let neither the Americans nor the Russians decide about our future,” and suggested EU’s Costa “has an important role to play.”
Sweden's Kristersson will submit proposals to form centre-right government with centrists
There’s also a bit of national news on the side, with Sweden’s Ulf Kristersson confirming he will send his proposal to the Swedish Centre party later today in the latest bid to break the deadlock and form a new government, more than 60 days after the election.
The party – which could decide the shape of the next government – has asked the leaders of the centre-left Social Democrats and centre-right Moderates to share their proposals on how they could work together in office.
The deadline expires this afternoon, and hopefully the exercise will get us a bit closer to resolving the current standoff.
Both offers have their problems: the more natural, centre-left grouping, led by S’s Magdalena Andersson, is paralysed by the Left’s demand for cabinet decisions – a move the Centre party has said would be unacceptable.
But the alternative, led by Kristersson, would equally pose awkward questions for the Centre Party vis a vis the far-right Sweden Democrats – although the party offered they could remain in opposition, but support a minority centre-right government.
Kristersson sought to strike a conciliatory tone in Dublin, as he courted the centrists:
“I recognise that the Centre Party is under immense pressure right now – at times, the rhetoric has been quite harsh, bordering on insulting. I have no intention of engaging in that; instead, I respect the Centre Party’s right to choose its own path.”
He added:
“I do not intend to go into the details of the proposals we are presenting to the Centre Party; these are intended for their own internal deliberations.
However, I can say that this is a policy reform agenda representing a centrist, center-right political approach.”
On Ukraine, Kristersson said “what Russia does speaks volumes more than anything Russia might say during various negotiations,” saying he does not have “high hopes” about the current talks – but they still were worth pursuing.
He said the discussion on who should represent Europe is “slightly overstated,” as the focus should be on Europe’s interests, not personalities.
He said that some of the issues are “pure EU interests” to be represented by EU institutions, but others should involve the largest countries, including also the UK.
“I am quite flexible on that. I think what we actually say is more important than the exact configuration of the people in the room.”
Europe should not 'walk into the traps that Russia is setting' on negotiating sequence, Kallas says
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has warned against the EU agreeing to Russia’s proposed sequence of talks on Ukraine, saying it would allow Moscow to “divert the attention away” from its actions and ultimately leave Europe “in a worse place.”
She welcomed the US side “finally admitting what I said already one and a half years ago – that for any deal between Russia and Ukraine … you also need the Europeans.”
“I hope that we are just not at the table, but we are actually also really influencing the outcome of these negotiations.”
She said:
“The most important is that we keep to our agreement that first the ceasefire, then peace agreement and then any kind of other talks … when Russia is still presenting their maximum demands, then we should also stick to the maximum demands and start to negotiate from there. …
Kallas warned that there is a risk of Europeans “actually walking into the traps that Russia is setting” as Moscow is trying to “divert the attention away from that there is no ceasefire and actually [get us to] start to listen to their claims.”
“If we walk into that trap that we start to discuss … the European security architecture, then I don’t think we are in a better place. We are actually in worse place.”
She continued:
“Let’s focus on what it is at hand. We have one aggressor and one victim. The aggressor does not have security concerns, as nobody has ever attacked them. They have attacked others. I mean, keep the focus, people.”
Kallas is also very clear that she wants to be part of the EU negotiating team, saying she was appointed to represent Europe on foreign and security policy.
“I know that the Russians don’t want me, but do we have a say on who is representing Russia? No, we don’t.”
She also said that ultimately she would not be “representing myself,” but bound by any mandate given to her by the 27.
Slightly amused/frustrated with repeated questions on what’s holding up the EU with deciding on its representation, she eventually hits back with this line:
“Well, we have institutions in place, so we can’t just send any person that has no institutional role like the Americans are sending. Clearly, we should not copy the same patterns.”
Asked why she thinks the Russians do not want her to be involved in the negotiations, she says:
“They don’t want [anyone] strong on the other side because they want to push their through their maximum demands, like they have always done. Because … their tactics is very clear: at first you present threats and ultimatums, you use force, and then you will just wait, because there will always be people in the west who will offer you something you didn’t have before. And every time you go further.
So, of course, if you negotiate with anybody, you want the other side to be as weak as possible so that you can get what you want.”
Updated
It’s a pretty chilly morning in Dublin, but the European Council president, António Costa, is keen to signal to his hosts that he’s ready to do business, showing off a cute Irish green scarf to Ireland’s Micheál Martin.
Today’s host, Ireland’s Micheál Martin, said discussions will focus on what Europe needs to consider any future Ukraine settlement a just and sustainable peace.
“The substance of any peace agreement is as important as who represents Europe. Europe needs to be very clear in terms of what would constitute a sustainable peace for the continent, well into the future. Security guarantees are a significant part of that, and also the reconstruction of Ukraine.”
He said the outstanding questions on Europe’s priorities and representation need to be decided “in the next week or two.”
On AI, he said the meeting will “explore the implications of AI, positive … plus the potential negatives, and the balance between regulation and innovation.”
Estonian prime minister Kristen Michal has warned that Ukraine faces “winter … like hell again,” with Russia “bombing everything” as he urged European leaders to double down on their backing for Kyiv.
“Putin has to change his goals because the war, aggression, and killing of women, children, and civilians would stop right now if he gave an order.”
He added:
“The European plan for a while [has been] quite simple: help Ukraine push Russia and so should it be.”
Michal warned that Putin’s attempt to discuss the broader European security architecture before agreeing to end the war is “a mental trap” by Russia’s Putin.
“Does anybody really think that Europe is a threat to Russia? This is not sane talk to be honest.
So, I would say that our red line is quite clear: we should have peace, on Ukraine’s terms, and after that everything can be talked, but not before and not at the same time.”
The Estonian PM also said that if the EU needs to send its negotiators, the European Council president António Costa and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas are “the persons to do it”.
Europe needs to be included in Ukraine talks 'to safeguard our interests,' EU's von der Leyen says
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen insisted it is “self-explanatory” that Europe should be included in the peace talks on Ukraine “to safeguard our interests, but also to support Ukraine.”
“We will come forward as a commission with a proposal for the financing of the Ukrainian needs in 2027, and with the 22nd sanctions package before the next European Council,” she said.
von der Leyen also said today’s talks would focus on “the risks … but also the opportunities’ associated with the rise of AI.
in Dublin
EU leaders will continue talks on their diplomatic and financial support for Ukraine today, after Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged them to “pay attention” to Vladimir Putin’s demands on security.
European leaders meeting in Dublin on Thursday rejected calls that there was any need to recreate a European security architecture, while restating that Russia needed to stop attacking Ukraine.
European Council president António Costa summed it up:
“There is no need to reinvent the wheel. Europe had a functioning European security architecture until it was first, gradually undermined, and ultimately destroyed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
Speaking to reporters the UK prime minister Andy Burnham said Europe “in the wider sense” i.e not just the EU, would decide on its own arrangements.
“In terms of the wider point, there was a very strong feeling that you know, Russian demands to put the question of European security architecture or European security arrangements into this negotiation – that is not up for negotiation... It is for Europe to decide its own arrangements. Europe and Europe alone. And again, I am talking in the wider sense when I say that.”
Around 40 countries, most of the attendees of the European Political Community summit on Thursday, signed a declaration drafted by France declaring that European states “bear a primary responsibility and are assuming greater responsibility for the security of Europe”.
EU leaders are continuing talks in Dublin on Friday, focusing on AI. But following interventions from Giorgia Meloni and Friedrich Merz, they will also discuss Europe’s role in international peace talks and the question of future financial support for Ukraine.
EU leaders meet in Dublin to talk Ukraine, AI
EU leaders are meeting in Dublin today for discussions on Ukraine and AI, among others, as they continue their search for a lead EU negotiator in any peace talks with Russia.
Their discussions are becoming increasingly urgent, after Ukraine and Russia have agreed to expand the next round of peace negotiations to include European countries, US envoy Jared Kushner said last night after meeting Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Dublin.
“This will allow us to address the broader postwar European security arrangements alongside the territorial issues between Ukraine and Russia,” Kushner said later on X.
But, as he somewhat mockingly said on Wednesday,
“If Europe could identify one person to speak on their behalf, that would be a bigger achievement than getting the Russians to include them in the negotiations.”
Ouch.
Let’s see what comes out of these discussions, with the leaders also expected to talk about AI.
Elsewhere, I am still keeping an eye on the Dutch government crisis as Rob Jetten works hard to avoid the collapse of his minority cabinet.
It’s Friday, 13 November 2026, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.
Good morning.
