Closing post

Time to wrap up….

US employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, a sharp drop from last month’s gains, and unemployment rose slightly to 4.2%, a sign of a cooling labor market in the final jobs report before the midterm election.

The numbers were under half of economists’ expectations of just under 70,000 new jobs. Most job gains were concentrated in the healthcare industry, which added 17,000 new jobs, while the information, financial and professional industries saw losses, according to the latest data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Earlier jobs figures were also revised down: Initial reports from July and August altogether dropped by 60,000. The labor market contracted by 10,000 jobs in July after revisions, while August saw 133,000 jobs added.

Growth in average hourly earnings slumped to 3%, the lowest rate in over five years.

More here:

Related: US added just 29,000 jobs in September in sharp drop from last month’s gains

The weak jobs report cut the chances of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates this month, helping to push down US government bond yields and sending the Nasdaq stock index to a record high.

In other news…

G7 countries have agreed to release 100mn barrels of diesel and crude oil from their strategic reserves, following pressure from the White House.

Related: G7 to release up to 100m barrels of emergency oil and diesel reserves

The move came as the average price of diesel in the UK climbed to a record £2 a litre…..

Related: UK diesel price hits record high of £2 a litre

….and the government insisted that the UK is not facing a diesel shortage.

Related: Minister denies UK faces diesel shortage after Trump threatens to ban exports

Soaring energy costs pushed inflation in the eurozone up to a three-year high of 3.8% last month.

Food inflation pressure is also rising, after prices hit their highest level in almost four years.

Updated

FTSE 100 posts biggest one-week fall since April

After a choppy week, the UK stock market has closed with a small daily gain.

The FTSE 100 index has ended the session up 33.7 points or 0.3% at 10,461 points. Mining stocks were among today’s risers.

But for the week, that still leaves the Footsie down 2.18%, its biggest weekly drop since mid-April.

Updated

October Fed rate hike down to 20% chance

The odds of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at its next meeting later this month have dropped today.

According to CME Fedwatch, an October rate hike is now only a 20.5% chance.

That’s down from 24.4% yesterday, and 64% a week ago when the markets were much more confident the Fed would tighten policy.

G7 to release 100 million barrels of diesel and other reserves

In another boost to the financial markets, the G7 have agreed to release as much as 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel stocks.

The move follows pressure from the Trump administration to quell rising fuel prices. If it works, then it will remove some of the inflationary pressure that has pushed up bond yields this week (before today’s recovery).

Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, says the release will take place over the next four months. It is being coordinated by the International Energy Agency.

A statement released by Macron’s office, says:

“We will implement our commitments with a coordinated release through the IEA of 100 million barrels to begin immediately over 4 months, including a frontloaded substantial diesel release within the first 20 days by G7 members and partners.”

Our Europe Live blog has more details:

Related: Over 560 schools disrupted in France on Friday as protests escalate into ‘urban violence’ – Europe live

Nasdaq Composite hits all-time high

Newsflash: America’s technology stock index has hit a record high, as traders express relief that today’s jobs report might dampen the pressure to raise US interest rates.

The Nasdaq Composite has jumped by 1.6% in early trading in New York.

Rocket Lab (+7.4%) are leading the risers, followed by UK-based chip designer ARM Holdings (+6.9%).

Stocks are up more broadly, with the S&P 500 index rising by 1%.

Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, explains why the slowdown in hiring across the US economy last month has cheered investors:

‘’There’s been a ripple of relief on financial markets as hopes rise that the Fed won’t have to go so hard and fast in raising interest rates. Treasury and gilt yields have eased off, and equity markets are on a rising tide, as the rush of worry has started to recede.

The latest US jobs figures came in weaker than expected, with just 29,000 jobs added in September, compared with forecasts of around 90,000. That’s a marked slowdown, although some of the weakness reflects a fall in government payrolls. But pay packets indicate that employees don’t have the upper hand in demanding higher wages, with hourly earnings rising by just 0.1% over the month, taking annual wage growth down to 3%, its lowest rate since the pandemic.

The figures suggest the jobs engine is losing a little steam, but isn’t spluttering to a halt, so the snapshot has been greeted as a dose of better news and a sign that the Fed may be a tad more wary about hiking borrowing costs.

Here's Nancy Vanden Houten, Lead US Economist at Oxford Economics, on today’s nonfarm payrolls data release:

The softer than expected September employment report makes a rate hike at the October meeting a closer call. However, we think the upside risks to inflation are still a bigger concern for the Federal Reserve and expect they will raise rates at the end of the month.

Nonfarm payrolls rose 29,000 in September and there were downward revisions to job gains for July and August. Still, on a trend basis, job growth is well in line with our estimate of the breakeven pace of job growth.

The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% in September as the prime-age labor force participation rate continues to recover some of the plunge that occurred in June. Looking ahead, we expect the unemployment rate to hold steady around 4.2% with the risk skewed to the downside as labor force growth continues to slow.

An October hike in US interest rates is now “firmly on the back foot”, predicts Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management:

“A softer-than-expected jobs report should put an October Fed hike firmly on the back foot.

Weaker payrolls, softer wage growth and a higher unemployment rate all point to a labour market that’s cooling rather than reaccelerating. That should take some steam out of Treasury yields and reduce the urgency for the Fed to act. CPI remains the decisive release, but today’s data argues for patience, not panic. The Fed needs to see a reacceleration in inflation, not just resilience in growth, to justify another hike this year.”

Here’s Bradley Saunders, North America economist at Capital Economics, on today’s jobs report:

The softer employment gain and tick up in the unemployment rate in September is not enough to spoil the image of a labour market which is broadly performing well, though it may help to trim investors’ expectations for how far the Fed will eventually tighten back towards our view for two more rate hikes.

The 29,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in September was notably weaker than the consensus 90,000 estimate, but not disastrous. A 17,000 drag in government payrolls was partly to blame. Meanwhile, the softer 23,000 rise in healthcare & social assistance payrolls rose may be linked to the Trump administration’s recent decision to rescind Temporary Protected Status (TPS) and working authorisation for 350,000 migrants.

Wage growth 'more anaemic than expected'

US workers’ average earnings growth has also slowed, which is not good news for Donald Trump ahead of next month’s midterm elections.

Today’s jobs repot shows that in September, average hourly earnings were 3.0% higher than a year ago, down from 3.1% in August.

Nic Puckrin, a former Goldman Sachs analyst, explains:

“Today’s ice-cold report shows the jobs market may not be as healthy as previous data might have suggested. Wage growth is more anaemic than expected at 3%, while payrolls came in well below expectations at 28,000, with August also revised down.

This is a fly in the ointment for the Fed: it’s forcing the central bank to choose between two evils. Hike again, and you risk tipping the scale on unemployment at a time when Americans are already struggling with the cost-of-living crisis. Hold, and inflation could get out of control.

Dollar weakens

The US dollar is edging lower against some other major currencies.

It’s down by 0.5% against the Japanese yen, to ¥157.23/$.

It’s also lost 0.15% against the pound, which has risen to $1.322.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies, is down 0.25%.

Wall Street is set to rally when trading begins in 45 minutes, as today’s weak jobs report cools some fears of future interest rate rises.

The Dow Jones industrial average is forecast to rise by 0.85%, according to futures market pricing, with the tech-focused Nasdaq 100 up 1% in pre-market trading.

US bond yields fall after weak jobs report

Today’s weak US jobs report is bringing some comfort to the bond markets!

The prices of US Treasuries are rising, which is pulling down the yield (or rate of return) on these bonds away from the multi-year highs set earlier this week.

The yield on 10-year US Treasuries has fallen by 6 basis points (or 0.06 of a percentage point) to 5.174%. That pulls it away from the 24-year high recorded yesterday.

30-year US Treasury bonds are recovering too; the yield here is down by 4.5bps to 5.568%.

That’s not because bond investors like the sound of Americans strugging to find work. It’s because it will be harder for the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, to fight inflation, if the jobs market is weakening. The Fed has a dual mandate – to deliver price stability and full employment.

Where were jobs created, or lost, in the US last month

Health care continued to be a creator of jobs last month – hiring increased by 17,000 in September, including gains at ambulatory health care services and in hospitals.

Employment in construction rose by 11,000

Manufacturing employment rose by 9,000.

But financial activities fell by 7,000.

The BLS adds:

Employment also showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; information; professional and business services; social assistance; leisure and hospitality; other services; and government.

US economy only added 29,000 jobs in September

Newsflash: the US economy added much fewer jobs than expected last month, after a sharp slowdown in hiring.

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by just 29,000 last month, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics has reported.

That’s much weaker than the 90,000 new jobs which economists had expected.

The BLS says:

Employment in all major industries changed little over the month.

In another blow, August’s jobs report has been revised down to show that 29,000 fewer jobs were created than first estimated – 133,000, not 162,000.

And July’s jobs gains have been revised down by 31,000, from +21,000 to -10,000, meaning the US economy lost jobs in July.

French president Emmanuel Macron ⁠will chair a video call with his ⁠counterparts from ⁠the ​G7 from 2.30pm local time (1.30pm BST) to discuss possible measures on the world markets ⁠for crude and refined ​products, the ‌Elysee Palace ‌has said in a statement.

This follow US pressure on European nations to release additional diesel stockpiles in an ​attempt ​to reduce ​surging fuel prices.

UK mortgage rates hit new highs

UK mortgage rates have hit the highest levels in more than two years this morning, pushed up by the turmoil in the bond markets.

The average two-year fixed residential mortgage rate has now risen to 5.96%, up from 5.93% yesterday, Moneyfacts reports. That’s the highest since 30 June 2024.

The average 5-year fixed residential mortgage rate has risen to 5.98%, up from 5.95% yesterday, and the highest since 29 September 2023.

This morning’s jump in eurozone inflation hasn’t prevented stock markets in the region recovering some of yesterday’s losses.

Germany’s DAX index has gained 1.1% so far today, while France’s CAC is up 0.8%.

Traders will be reassured by the drop in the oil price today – Brent crude is still down around 2.4% at $99.87 a barrel.

High fuel prices are likely to push eurozone inflation to 4% by the end of the year, predict analysts Bill Diviney and Adrian Quinn at ABN Amro.

They told clients:

We expect inflation to continue to move higher over the coming months, although the biggest of the rises is probably behind us with today’s release. Our base case assumes energy prices stay elevated well into 2027, and the broadening pass-through from energy to other categories is expected to push inflation to a peak of a little over 4% by the turn of the year.

The still-rising inflation trajectory alongside the continued diplomatic failure to fully resolve the energy supply crunch is likely to keep the ECB’s Governing Council hiking rates over the coming months. We expect two additional rate hikes by the ECB, ultimately taking the deposit rate to 3%.

The UK government moved to avert panic at the pumps early this morning by insisting that Britain is not facing a diesel shortage, after Donald Trump threatened to cut off US supplies of the fuel.

The transport minister Keir Mather said on Friday that the UK has a wide range of sources of the fuel and is in talks with other European countries over the potential release of emergency diesel stockpiles.

“I want to reassure people that they can still go to the pump and fill up with diesel because the supply we have to the UK is inherently resilient,” he said, speaking on ITV’s Good Morning Britain.

“The flows of diesel into the UK come from a variety of sources, and that is resilient.”

Related: UK is not facing diesel shortage despite fears of Trump export ban, minister says

The wholesale price of diesel in Europe has fallen sharply today, the Financial Times, reports, as European countries come under pressure from the Trump administration to release their motor fuel stocks.

The FT has spotted that the continent’s benchmark diesel futures contract fell by nearly 6% to as low as $1364 a tonne, the equivalent of around $185 a barrel.

Yesterday, UK government ministers held calls with counterparts from the European Commission (EC), Germany, France, Italy and Ireland on Thursday to discuss whether to draw down reserves, amid threats that the US could introduce a ban on diesel exports otherwise.

Related: Britain in talks with European allies over release of emergency diesel stockpiles amid Trump pressure

Today’s fresh diesel high was recorded after record fuel prices across Europe in recent weeks, which have ignited calls for political leaders to take action to protect consumers against rising cost pressures.

Inflation in the cost of road fuels has outpaced the surge in global oil markets due to a sharp drop in output from refineries damaged by war in the Middle East and in Russia.

Before the Ukraine war, Russia provided between 10% and 15% of the world’s diesel supplies. Another 10% of global diesel supplies transited through the strait of Hormuz from Gulf nations before Iran responded to the US-Israeli attacks by disrupting the strait.

More here:

Related: UK diesel price hits record high of £2 a litre

Petrol prices have risen again too.

The average price of a litre of unleaded has risen to 174.71p a litre, which is around 42p more than at the start of the Iran war.

Diesel hits £2 a litre for first time

Newsflash: The average price of a litre of diesel in the UK has hit £2 for the first time.

New data from the RAC shows that diesel hit an average price of 200.01p a litre this morning.

That means diesel prices have surged by 40.5% since the start of the Iran war at the end of February, when diesel cost 142.38p a litre.

A 55-litre tank of diesel now costs £110.01 – £31.70 more than 28 February, the RAC says.

RAC head of policy Simon Williams says:

“This is a pump price threshold that no-one wanted to cross – the average price of a litre of diesel has risen to a record 200.01p and is showing no signs of slowing, heaping more misery onto motorists. The cost of filling up an average family car is now £110, almost £32 more than it was at the start of the US/Iran war.

This will be very challenging for households and companies that drive a lot of miles, from commuters, haulage and delivery firms, businesses with large fleets all the way through to sole traders. In a cruel twist, it’s diesel vehicles, which were once considered the most cost-effective option for lengthy journeys, that are now burning a hole in people’s pockets.

“For an average 45mpg diesel car, the cost works out at an extraordinary 20p per mile, so a driver covering 10,000 miles a year is now spending £2,020 on fuel a year. Households will be tightening the purse strings, while businesses may have no option but to pass these additional costs onto customers.

The previous highest price of 199.09p seen in June 2022 is already becoming a distant memory as the conflict in the Middle East continues with no sign of a deal to reopen the critical oil and gas shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, US threats of a diesel export ban could cause prices to rise even further. Once again, it’s ordinary people who are left footing the bill for events far away, as the UK remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels and imported diesel.

Updated

Oil is continuing to drop, which would help to ease inflation pressures if this trend continues.

Crude is weakening following reports that exports of crude from the strait of Hormuz have largely returned to levels seen before the outbreak of the Iran war.

Related: Crude oil exports from strait of Hormuz largely return to pre-war levels

Brent crude is now down 2.7% to $99.54 a barrel.

Today’s jump in eurozone inflation from 3.2% to 3.8% marks the fastest jump since March, the first month of the Middle East war, reports ING economist Bert Colijn.

Colijn told clients:

Ouch. Eurozone inflation blew past expectations in September, soaring to its highest level since 2023. Energy inflation remained the main driver of the higher rate.

Despite oil prices remaining somewhat below peaks seen in 2022 and this spring, Euro 95 petrol prices have now reached an all-time high. This is weighing significantly on the inflation basket for the moment.

Eurozone inflation is three-year high

At 3.8%, eurozone inflation is the highest since September 2023.

Lale Akoner, global market strategist at investment platform eToro, argues that the European Central Bank doesn’t need to react immediately to this morning’s jump in inflation:

“Euro-area inflation at 3.8% makes ECB tightening more likely, but the composition of the increase matters. Much of the acceleration is being driven by energy, while core inflation matched expectations at 2.5%. That gives the ECB some room to wait rather than react immediately, particularly as higher bond yields are already tightening financial conditions and weakening demand.

The key risk is that the energy shock spreads into wages, services prices and corporate pricing. Services inflation rising to 3.2%, alongside higher consumer inflation expectations, means policymakers cannot assume the shock will fade. The ECB is therefore likely to retain a hawkish bias, even if an October hike remains uncertain.

For markets, this is an uncomfortable mix: higher inflation, weaker growth and less scope for rate cuts. It supports the euro, keeps pressure on government bonds and favours companies with pricing power and resilient balance sheets over rate-sensitive sectors and weaker consumers.”

Core inflation in the eurozone also inched up last month.

Inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol & tobacco, rose to 2.5% in September up from 2.4% in August.

Eurozone inflation surges to 3.8%

Newsflash: Inflation across the eurozone has surged to almost double the European Central Bank’s 2% target.

The euro area inflation rate is expected to be 3.8% in September, statistics body Eurostat has reported, up from 3.2% in August 2026.

Energy prices were the biggest driver of inflation across the eurozone – prices were 18.8% higher than in September 2025. That’s an acceleration on August, when energy prices were 14.3% higher year-on-year.

Services inflation rose to 3.2%, up from 3.0% in August.

Food, alcohol & tobacco inflation inceased to 1.4%, up from 1.1%.

But industrial goods inflation slipped to 1.1%, down from 1.2% in August).

This jump in inflation could put more pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates (even though that wouldn’t fix the causes of the energy prices shock), to prevent ‘second round effects’, where prices push up wages.

World food prices near four-year high in September

Newsflash: World food prices rose in September to their highest in nearly four years as farmers were hit by hot weather and logistics disruptions.

The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index, which tracks a basket of food commodities, has jumped to its highest level since November 2022.

The index rose to averaged 136.0 points this month, up from 134.0 for August, with the prices of sugar, meat, oil, dairy and cereals all rising during the month.

The report, which gives a great insight into the global food market, reports:

The Sugar Price Index surged by 11.9% in August, to its highest level since June 2025.

This was riven by fears of weak global sugar supply outlook in the 2026/27 season, partly due to El Niño fears.

The FAO says:

Persistent hot and dry weather led to a downward revision of sugarbeet yield forecasts in the European Union, where planted area was already anticipated to decline from the previous season, while El Niño-related weather conditions continued to affect production prospects in key producing countries in Asia.

Lower sugar production in Brazil’s key Center-South growing region also contributed to the tighter supply outlook. Additionally, India’s announcement of duty-free raw sugar imports further contributed to the increase in international sugar prices.

Related: What is El Niño, what causes it and can we reduce the risks?

The Cereal Price Index rose by 2.2% in August, to its highest level since May 2024 due to “robust demand, weather-related concerns over crop prospects in key producing regions, and continued uncertainty surrounding Black Sea export flows.”

Wheat prices were pushed up by persistent disruptions to Black Sea export logistics, and lower production prospects in parts of Europe following hot and dry weather.

[Reminder, the UK is thought to have suffered its worst harvest since detailed records began in 1984].

The Vegetable Oil Price Index rose by 0.6%, its third consecutive monthly increase, to the highest level since June 2022.

Higher world palm and soy oil prices, more than offset lower quotations for sunflower and rapeseed oils, with palm oil prices pushed up, in part, by concerns over the potential impact of El Niño-related weather conditions.

The Meat Price Index rose 1% in August, due to higher poultry, pig and ovine meat prices.

The FAO says:

International poultry meat prices rose, reflecting a rebound in Brazilian export prices amid strong global import demand. Pig meat quotations also surged, principally driven by higher prices in the European Union, where high temperatures continued to slow animal growth, limiting the availability of slaughter-ready pigs.

And….The Dairy Price Index jumped by 2.3% in August, driven by higher milk powder and cheese prices.

Related: Milk, wine, salad: how your food will be affected by the summer of heat

Updated

French 10-year bond yields are very slightly lower this morning, at 4.925%.

Yesterday they rose as high as 4.96%, the highest level since July 2002.

Global bond market steadying

The global bond market appears to be steadying this morning.

UK government bond prices are recovering some of their recent losses, which is pulling down borrowing costs (yields).

The yield on two-year UK bonds has dropped by over six basis points (0.06 of a percentage point) to 4.767% – that could help ease the pressure on mortgage rates.

Benchmark 10-year UK bond yields are down 5.5bps to 5.369%, away from the 19-year highs set earlier this week.

30-year bond yields, which hit their highest level since 1998 yesterday, are down too – dropping by 5bps to 5.92%.

Bond yields are dropping in sync with the Brent crude oil price, which is down 1% today to $101.19 a barrel.

Fears that sharply high oil prices will keep pushing up inflation, forcing central banks to raise interest rates, have been a prime factor behind the bond sell-off.

Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, argues that the bond market sell-off presents good opportunities for investors, including in France:

“We remain Attractive on fixed income and see the rise in European yields as creating selective opportunities in high-quality bonds. Our core preference remains for short- to medium-term maturities.

Within France, we see attractive risk-reward in select agency, covered, and corporate bonds. We also favor stronger investment grade issuers across medium maturities, while higher-risk credit should remain relatively short-dated.”

Lord O’Neill: letting UK fiscal buffer fall might be 'wisest thing to do'

The jump in UK borrowing costs in recent weeks to the highest level in many years has eaten into the ‘fiscal buffer’ which the government created to keep within its fiscal rules.

That buffer was £23.6bn back in March, but some economists estimate it could have halved – even before you account for new spending pledges.

This means John Healey could face a choice between reporting a smaller buffer (which increases the risk of breaking the fiscal rules), or lifting taxes to boost revenues.

Economist Lord O’Neill argues that Healey should accept the buffer will have to be smaller, pointing out that we are facing “remarkable circumstances”.

Jim O’Neill told Radio 4’s Today Programme that this might be the wisest thing to do, given the huge unpredictability surrounding Donald Trump and the Iran war.

The situation could be very different by the budget, or a few weeks later, and oil prices might have dropped, he argues.

As Lord O’Neill puts it:

Rather than risking some tax increases in the way previous governments have to just magically hit some number and keep the buffer bigger, in this instance I personally suspect it might be the wisest thing to do.

He also argues that the UK economic situation is somewhat better than some people realise, pointing out that the economy grew at an annual rate of 2% in the first half of this year.

Related: Labour figures uneasy about Healey’s ‘underpowered’ approach to budget

Euro near 17-month low

The euro is trading close to the 17-month low hit yesterday, when the single currency fell by over 0.75% to as low as €1.1214.

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, says jitters about France are hurting the euro:

The sharp weakening of appetite for French debt is a big issue for the broader euro area and the euro itself. France is the euro area’s second-largest economy — we used to call it the ‘core’, along with Germany, back during the 2012 sovereign debt crisis!

So, if concerns spread, other heavily indebted members could also face higher borrowing costs, tightening financial conditions across the region. For the euro, that means weaker growth prospects and a growing risk premium. The EURUSD tanked to 1.1215 yesterday, as the market’s focus shifted from the central-bank convergence/divergence story towards the euro area sovereign debt story.

France’s budget 'offers no quick relief for bond markets'

France’s government did try to cool the situation yesterday, by proposing a budget for next year including €43bn in cuts and tax rises.

Under the proposed plan, the tax burden would rise while spending growth would be slowed through slashing state spending, and capping increases to pensions and civil servant salaries.

Finance minister Roland Lescure explained it was important to put France back on track for deficit reduction.

But even with this plan, the French budget deficit would only fall to 5% of GDP next year.

Analysts at ING warn that this deficit would be “far too high” to prevent France’s national debt (already 119% of GDP) from rising higher.

In a note titled France’s budget offers no quick relief for bond markets, ING say:

France’s fiscal package would prevent the deficit from reaching 6.5% of GDP next year, but it would not stabilise public debt. With a difficult political process ahead, French bonds are likely to remain under pressure, while the threshold for ECB intervention remains high

Introduction: French bond sell-off 'reminiscent of the euro crisis'

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

Turmoil in the government bond market is reviving memories of the eurozone debt crisis 15 years ago – but this time France is in the firing line.

Concerns over Paris’s fiscal position are pushing its borrowing costs up, amid a global sell-off of sovereign debt. This pushed the gap between France and Germany’s borrowing costs, a key measure of investor concern, to its widest level since 2012.

Yesterday, the yield on French 10-year government bonds (or OATs) yields jumped to their highest level since 2002, before dipping back as the bond rout eased.

Investors are reluctant to eat their OATs due to political uncertainty, with presidential elections scheduled for 2027, and concerns over France’s public debt which has climbed to a record high.

Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank strategist, points out that yesterday the Franco-German 10 year spread (+13.9bps) saw its biggest daily jump since March 2020 at the height of the Covid turmoil.

Reid told clients this morning:

Markets stumbled yesterday as we began Q4, with mounting signs of financial stress focused on Europe. In fact, the daily moves were reminiscent of the Euro crisis in many respects, with sovereign contagion a big talking point.

Inflation fears are also pushing up bond yields – and at 10am we get the first reading on how fast prices rose across the eurozone in September.

If that doesn’t rock the market, then the latest US jobs report might, as pressure mounts on the US Federal Reserve to consider raising interest rates.

The agenda

  • 9am BST: UN’s FAO Food Price Index

  • 10am BST: Eurozone flash inflation reading for September

  • 1.30pm BST: US non-farm payrolls employment report

  • 3pm BST: US factory orders report for August

Updated