Giles Richards' report
And here is Giles’s verdict:
Antonelli’s first pole since the Belgian GP in July could not have been better timed as he attempts to take his first title. The Italian has a 102-point lead over Russell and needs to be 125 points in front after this race. To take the title he must win on Sunday and have Russell finish outside the top eight, with Hamilton outside the top four. The win certainly looks to be a strong prospect but he still needs his rivals to stumble somewhat on Sunday.
He can only do his best and knows that even should the title not be secured here, on this form it will surely be done and dusted by the next round in Mexico.
Related: Kimi Antonelli seizes F1 US GP pole and chance to seal first world title
The top 10 times
Right, Giles Richards’ report will be here shortly. Here’s the top 10, with times:
1 Kimi Antonelli 🇮🇹 Mercedes 1:34.035
2 Max Verstappen 🇳🇱 Red Bull +0.179
3 Isack Hadjar 🇫🇷 Red Bull +0.215
4 Charles Leclerc 🇲🇨 Ferrari +0.232
5 Lewis Hamilton 🇬🇧 Ferrari +0.276
6 George Russell 🇬🇧 Mercedes +0.441
7 Oscar Piastri 🇦🇺 McLaren +0.768
8 Lando Norris 🇬🇧 McLaren +1.014
9 Arvid Lindblad 🇬🇧 Racing Bulls +2.014
10 Liam Lawson 🇳🇿 Racing Bulls no time
Tom Lutz will be with you for the race tomorrow, which starts at 3pm local time, 4pm eastern, and 8pm GMT, as the clocks change in the UK but not yet the US.
Lando Norris is “not very happy with myself”. He says he did he “a terrible job today”. Says it is the hardest car he has driven but that it was still good enough for P2. He refused to blame the weather for having his best time deleted.
Hamilton speaks, asked about the second sector. “Q1 and Q2 were really good … we didn’t make any changes. Those guys just took another step. A great lap by Kimi … Our cars are as good as those in the corners but we lose in the straights.”
Davidson looking at Antonelli and Verstappen side by side. A tiny error from the Dutchman at turn 11. Verstappen really struggling at 15.
“Q3 was very difficult … a gust of wind … but the same for everyone.” He says it will be tough against Verstappen. “Yesterday Red Bull had a lot of pace in a long run.”
More Antonelli. What was key to that pole? “One of the keys was not doing any track limits … in a couple of races … I’ve put myself under more pressure.”
“We’re not talking about that … it’s not realistic,” Wolff says about Antonelli winning the title tomorrow. It’s all abiut getting points for the constructors’ championship, apparently. What’s the Austrian-German idiom for pull the other one?
Wolff addresses Russell’s situation, “an absolutely world-class driver”. Basically the car is there, and Russell needs to point himself in the right direction.
Jenson Button talks of Antonelli’s emotion at taking pole. Wolff says: “We know how important it is to find out what went wrong with the upgrade … and now we see that the car is there.” This all bodes well for 2027.
Toto Wolff discusses pole: “It’s a little bit of a surprise … I told [a guest] something between P3 and P5. Now he thinks I am totally incompetent.”
Anthony Davidson showing the difficulty of those final laps when the wind got up.
Fred Vasseur a bit mystified by Ferrari’s problems.
It’s very much possible. Antonelli’s first pole for eight races has come at the perfect time. Naomi Schiff is trying to work out the percentage chances of him winning this weekend, saying that the Sky panel were saying it was 4-5% pre-qualifying.
The equation: Antonelli 1st + Russell ≠ <9th + Hamilton ≠ <5th.
Updated
And here is Kimi. “We’ve got pole so we’ll try to win … but Max has been very quick. We’ll try to lead into turn one.” Again he references the wind. So that seems to be part of the explanation for what we saw generally, but what will Ferrari say?
Now Verstappen. “Q3 was not good … for whatever reason, did not have good balance.” Like Hadjar, he cites the wind as a factor on the final lap.
Hadjar, in P3, speaks: “I’m happy with P3 because it’s been incredibly hard this weekend … I have been hard on the team so want to apologise.’
Quite remarkable from Antonelli.
Maybe I should give up on the prediction game. If Antonelli is to be champion this weekend then he has got just what he needed. A strange Q3, with little improvement and Ferrari dropping away.
Kimi Antonelli takes pole!
The man-boy who would be king has that pole position, in 1:34.035! Verstappen, Hadjar, Leclerc, Hamilton, Russell, Piastri, Norris – his fastest lap time deleted – Lindblad and Lawson.
Updated
Leclerc only fourth, Hamilton fifth ahead of Russell, who then gets dropped further by Norris.
Antonelli goes slower but is still on pole.
Crunch time. Russell goes through in fifth still.
Ferrari are baffled. Where has their pace gone?
Everyone in the pits. Liam Lawson is sitting this sesssion out, saving tyres: he can’t crack the top eight and a penalty means he will be ahead of his teammate Lindblad.
Antonelli, the man of the moment, has that provisional pole.
Leclerc runs fourth, +0.301, with Hamilton down in sixth.
The Red Bull pair then split the Mercedes.
George Russell sets a target of 1:34.035, but Antonelli beats him by 0.441.
And we’re off again.
Antonelli was just 0.080 behind Leclerc, with Russell at +0.107.
Q2 eliminations
Out go Gasly, Hulkenberg, Bortoleto, Colapinto, Alonso and Bearman.
Updated
So Verstappen and Norris knocked down to fourth and fifth at the end. But for them it’s all about Q3.
A lovely lap from Russell, goes fastest but is pipped first by Antonelli and then Leclerc in 1:34.198.
Most drivers out but not Verstappen and Norris, our leaders.
Everyone in the pits.
The drop zone is shaping up as Lindblad, Gasly, Colapinto, Bearman, Alonso and Bortoleto.
Norris breaks things up, second fastest by 0.068. Antonelli third at +0.285, followed by Russell in +0.309. Russell was complaining earlier that he was rather too literally in the hot seat.
Red Bull first and third, with Hadjar also beating Leclerc.
Updated
Hamilton puts in a 1:34.471, pipping Leclerc by 0.555, but then Verstappen gets a 1:34.471!
Zak Brown of McLaren says that the wind is getting up and making for more track limit problems.
Here we go for Q2. Leclerc and Hamilton among the early runners.
Anthony Davidson looking at Williams’s problems. They are faster on the straights than Ferrari but being massacred at the corners. A very disappointing 2026.
Ted Kravitz is at Aston Martin and says he heard what sounded like fireworks from Alonso’s car …
Fernando Alonso made Q2 in 16th but reports some mild flames – oil on the exhaust, David Croft wonders.
Q1 eliminations
Out go Ocon, Stroll, Sainz, Albon, Perez and Bottas.
Updated
Norris goes fastest! 1:35.029, that’s impressive.
Updated
Gasly gets out, going up to 12th. Stroll pushed down.
A word, though, for Liam Lawson. He is running seventh at +0.462. He has thoroughly justified his place this season after his abrupt demotion last year.
Not a lot of movement at present.
Piastri ninth fastest on his mediums at +0.742, knocked down a place by Russell. Now Antonelli in fifth is the fastest medium man.
Updated
The drop zone is shaping up as Colapinto, Ocon, Albon, Perez, Bottas and Gasly after that deletion.
Lando Norris running fifth at +0.357.
Pierre Gasly has his time deleted, the first man on the naughty step.
Antonelli, since you ask, is down in ninth – but is on mediums.
Updated
Max Verstappen goes second, a minuscule 0.015 slower! Isack Hadjar is +0.086.
Updated
The Ferrari duo are on softs; so is Lando Norris, but McLaren have sent Piastri out on mediums.
Lewis Hamilton now through +0.155 of his teammate.
Here’s a real time: Leclerc in 1:35.200.
Make-believe standings at present: Bearman from Stroll.
A Porsche spilled some antifreeze, apparently.
The slippery surface flag – my second flag ID failure of the week, after failing to recognise Oman’s on the streets of Windsor, ready for a state visit, as I was en route to Legoland – is showing at turn one.
Updated
Haas and Cadillac are away on home turf.
“The cards have fallen for him but he has been relentless,” Brundle says of Antonelli.
Martin Brundle is suggesting that drivers will need to “take some time off the table” because of track limits, and that the bouncing Giles referred to earlier can be enough to kybosh a lap.
Only 11 more – I think – where Lando Norris is the last man standing.
After a curious promo for Texas, it’s portentous driver countdown time.
Ted Kravitz is at Ferrari, saying that it really has to be their pole, given what is at stake for them here. The company president is among the dignitaries in Austin; a quarter of all Ferraris are sold in the US; they have brought an upgrade that seems to be working; they have the FP hat-trick.
Updated
Simon Lazenby wonders if drivers should go for a safe, early lap, before pushing later, but Naomi Schiff points out that some of them are doing fine: just stick within the limits.
Davidson then runs us through Hamilton’s FP3 best, which is the fastest legal lap anyone has had all weekend.
Anthony Davidson, right on cue on Sky, starts a track limits sequence – and the second driver he shows going over a white line is Antonelli.
One feature of free practice generally, referred to in that snippet from Reuters’ FP3 report, has been drivers having times deleted for breaching track limits. If Antonelli had had one weakness this season, then that has been it.
Twenty minutes to go. It is warm – 30C – and sunny in Austin, while the UK recovers from Storm Austen (no relation) and Storm Boelo.
Updated
In Saturday’s final session, Lewis Hamilton made it a Ferrari hat-trick:
The seven-time world champion had trailed Leclerc a day earlier, complaining about the bumps and the setup direction of his upgraded car, but he seemed to have got it back to what he wanted.
The 41-year-old lapped in a best time of 1min 34.893sec, 0.168 quicker than his Red Bull rival Max Verstappen and 0.234 faster than Leclerc, to complete the Ferrari practice sweep before Saturday’s qualifying, with the team chasing a first pole of 2026.
“Ferrari looks to be very strong. They have some nice upgrades, and Red Bull. It looks to me like Ferrari might be the team to beat this weekend,” said the McLaren team principal, Zak Brown.
Leclerc would have been top, had he not had his best lap deleted for exceeding track limits at turn nine, while Hamilton also had to take evasive action on a late fast lap to avoid Gabriel Bortoleto’s slow Audi ahead of him. Reuters
Here are the times:
1 Lewis Hamilton 🇬🇧 Ferrari 1:34.893
2 Max Verstappen 🇳🇱 Red Bull +0.168
3 Charles Leclerc 🇲🇨 Ferrari +0.234
4 Kimi Antonelli 🇮🇹 Mercedes +0.303
5 George Russell 🇬🇧 Mercedes +0.488
6 Oscar Piastri 🇦🇺 McLaren +0.683
7 Nico Hülkenberg 🇩🇪 Audi +0.698
8 Lando Norris 🇬🇧 McLaren +0.813
9 Pierre Gasly 🇫🇷 Alpine +1.011
10 Isack Hadjar 🇫🇷 Red Bull +1.037
How did people fare in practice? Friday was a good day for Charles Leclerc. As our Giles Richards wrote:
In first practice at the Circuit of the Americas, Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc topped the timesheets from Verstappen, with Lando Norris third for McLaren and Russell and Antonelli in fourth and fifth. Ferrari had brought their final swathe of upgrades to the race and on the early showing they had found some extra pace.
In the afternoon running Leclerc was once more on top, four hundredths clear of Antonelli in second. Verstappen was in third, from Hamilton in fourth.
Here are the top 10s from FP1:
1 Charles Leclerc 🇲🇨 Ferrari 1:36.052
2 Max Verstappen 🇳🇱 Red Bull +0.084
3 Lando Norris 🇬🇧 McLaren +0.245
4 George Russell 🇬🇧 Mercedes +0.326
5 Kimi Antonelli 🇮🇹 Mercedes +0.481
6 Lewis Hamilton 🇬🇧 Ferrari +0.503
7 Oscar Piastri 🇦🇺 McLaren +0.734
8 Gabriel Bortoleto 🇧🇷 Audi +0.943
9 Arvid Lindblad 🇬🇧 Racing Bulls +1.011
10 Liam Lawson 🇳🇿 Racing Bulls +1.257
and FP2:
1 Charles Leclerc 🇲🇨 Ferrari 1:35.291
2 Kimi Antonelli 🇮🇹 Mercedes +0.4042
3 Max Verstappen 🇳🇱 Red Bull +0.189
4 Lewis Hamilton 🇬🇧 Ferrari +0.615
5 George Russell 🇬🇧 Mercedes +0.744
6 Liam Lawson 🇳🇿 Racing Bulls +1.040
7 Lando Norris 🇬🇧 McLaren +1.082
8 Oscar Piastri 🇦🇺 McLaren +1.096
9 Isack Hadjar 🇫🇷 Red Bull +1.120
10 Oliver Bearman 🇬🇧 Haas +1.245
One man has had to take the rough with the smooth almost all season. George Russell has endured a frustrating 2026, which was supposed to be his year. As the Associated Press reports:
Many thought Russell [would be winning a maiden title] when the season started in Australia. Russell won his eighth career victory in a new generation Mercedes that was the class of the field.
Instead, the British driver heads into the final stretch of the season far behind his teammate, and fending off mounting frustration, and hoping he can somehow pick off a win or two to send him into a better 2027.
“It’s been a season that has very much tested my character and resilience,” Russell said this week.
…
“I’ve had to look at myself in the mirror numerous times and think: ‘How do I want to bounce back from these blows?’ Do I just want to give up and accept the misfortune or the poor performances, or do I want to try to rectify things, make the most of it and control everything I can control.”
Russell said he’s capable of doing that. “I intend to be here for many, many, many years to come, and you can’t give up when you’re being kicked to the floor. You’ve got to bounce back. I can at least be proud that I’ve given it my all in that regard.”
Antonelli is a happy bunny, with Mercedes posting social footage on social media of their kid on a rollercoaster, but not all the rides at the Circuit of the Americas have been smooth, as our man in Austin reports:
Going into the weekend, however, the circuit has drawn unusually severe criticism from drivers. The race was first held in 2012 and the circuit has a contract until 2034. It has become hugely popular, with sold-out crowds, but the track has come under intense scrutiny.
It is built on marshland and the bumps caused by the ground beneath the track have been condemned as potentially harmful, with the uneven surface forcing impacts into the base of the drivers’ spines.
Max Verstappen, Red Bull’s four-time world champion, said: “The bumps are unacceptable. Over time they’ve been grinding a little bit here and there but it’s just putting a plaster on the big problem. You need to really fully open up the track. That costs a lot of money and time but that’s the only way to get rid of it because these bumps are not natural and they are out of control.”
Related: F1 crown in reach for Kimi Antonelli at bumpy Austin circuit drivers insist is ‘unacceptable’
Forty-five minutes to the off. How has Antonelli built that lead? Well, as our graph shows, he burst out of the traps, overtaking George Russell with his second consecutive victory in Japan in race three and only briefly looking as if he could be hauled back. Russell won in Austria, with Antonelli third, then second at Silverstone, with the Italian out of the points. But the 20-year-old was soon back in command.
Preamble
Newsflash: Kimi Antonelli is going to win the world drivers’ championship. Oddsflash: he is unlikely to do so this weekend.
You probably know the maths roughly, so here it is exactly. With six races left, Antonelli leads George Russell by 102 points and Lewis Hamilton by 111, and if he leads everyone by at least 125 after Sunday then that will be that. He would be guaranteed to have had more race wins should he go pointless for the rest of the campaign while a rival swept the board and levelled the points up.
But to stand a chance of reaching that 125-point advantage, he has to win in Austin. He then needs Russell to get no more than the two points for ninth place, and Hamilton to get no more than the 10 points for fifth place. No one seems to be offering odds on Antonelli pulling it off, but Russell is a 1-9 shot to be in the top 10, and 1-3 to be in the top six; somewhere between those two lie the odds on him making the top eight, while Hamilton – 1-7 to make the top six, 8-5 for top three – looks to be a shade of odds-on for fourth.
Antonelli himself is only second favourite for the race, behind Max Verstappen, and that status is questionable: Antonelli has not stood on the top step in the past three races. The Dutchman has won two GPs in a row, as well.
But if we knew what was going to happen we wouldn’t be watching. Never underestimate Russell’s 2026 susceptibility to misfortune, for instance.
So, join me from what is 3.15pm in Austin and 4.15pm eastern time – and 9.15pm in the UK, for Guardian sport’s last BST blog of 2026 – for the buildup to qualifying, which starts on the hour.
In the meantime, Giles Richards has been looking at the make-up of the (fairly) soon-to-be champion:
At the heart of this engaging character it seems is a grounded and emotionally rich relationship with his family. While he was supported in following his racing dreams, he was told unequivocally that if he was to kart on a weekend, school must follow on a Monday until he graduated. He duly did so, completing his maturità school exams just after coming third – his first podium – at the Canadian GP last year.
“Which driver has done the A-levels or the baccalaureate? Name me one that has finished school. No one,” Wolff observed pointedly of his prodigy. The role of his family has clearly been crucial. His father as guide, mentor and, both have admitted, stern taskmaster at times, whom Antonelli has described as his “rock”. But there is also clearly a hugely important relationship with his mother, Veronica, and younger sister Maggie.
Have a read of the full profile as you wait …
Related: ‘A different kid’: from karting to F1 champion-elect, Antonelli’s ability has always stood out
