Brisbane fans are showing no signs of grand final fatigue even as their side marches into a fourth AFL decider in as many years (while their AFLW team has appeared in the past four women’s grand finals!).

Jonathan Horn explores the introverted enigma that is Justin Longmuir as the Dockers coach bucks the trend to lead his side into an AFL grand final.

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Justin Longmuir has always been something of an outlier – a classic introvert who can come across as nervous and awkward in press conferences, a man who had to steel himself to speak to large groups when he started coaching. He’s not a coach who picks fights or creates diversions or speaks in riddles. He says he’s an over-thinker. He says he’s harder on himself than any critic, and there has been plenty of those. As one of just two senior coaches who have never played in or coached a grand final team, it’s something that can make him an easy target when the side are underperforming – that he doesn’t have the playing record, the aura, the eloquence, the polish, the prick in him.

Related: From the Pocket: Justin Longmuir is an awkward outlier among AFL’s combative coaches

Fremantle fans are arriving at the MCG as they hope to create the everlasting memory of seeing their side break the 32-year premiership drought and claim a first AFL grand final.

Fremantle and Brisbane each have a slice of history within touching distance as the best defensive team and the top attacking side of the season meet in a final for the first time. I have gone deep into where the game will be won – and lost – as well as the players set to shape the decider. And also throw in a prediction for how it will all play out – send us your tips on email.

The Dockers are the top-ranked defence with an average of 74 points conceded this year and showed in the come-from-behind victory against the Swans how they can control a game, and limit the opposition scoring, by dominating the territory battle. …

The Lions have flipped the script on how to reach the pointy end of the season as they lean into their enviable spread of firepower to become an offensive juggernaut. The Lions have averaged 118 points since they put three straight mid-season defeats behind them to win 12 of their past 14 matches.

Related: AFL 2026 grand final: where the Fremantle v Brisbane decider will be won and lost

How did Fremantle and Brisbane take the last step to the grandest stage? Only with a victory in one of the more remarkable weekends of football in memory.

The Lions’ nail-biting win over the Hawks has strong claims to be the best game of Australian rules football ever played – and Jonathan Horn presents the case for both the prosecution and the defence.

Related: Was Hawthorn v Brisbane the best game of Australian rules football ever played? | Jonathan Horn

Jonathan was at the SCG the night before as the Dockers flicked a switch late in the third term and surged past the Swans to book a spot in just their second AFL grand final.

Related: Fremantle’s night of nights as they overrun Sydney and seal spot in second AFL grand final

Jai Arrow is at the official AFL grand final breakfast in Melbourne as the rugby league player’s diagnosis with motor neurone disease at the age of 30 crosses the divide between Australia’s most popular sporting codes.

Brisbane are into a fourth straight grand final but the first in that run where they start as the favourites. While we can’t be sure how the added expectation will weigh on Chris Fagan’s team, they have already shown they are at their best when playing a game that truly matters. Jonathan Horn will be at the MCG to report on the Lions’ chase for a premiership three-peat, and has already looked at why they have spent seven years at the pointy end of the ladder.

‘Give me 80,000 people at the MCG and I was Hercules,’ Brent Crosswell once said. ‘Give me a grey day at the Western Oval and I wasn’t worth a cracker.’ Crosswell, who probably would have won two Norm Smith medals if there was such a thing back then, would have been right at home in this Brisbane Lions team. They need a big occasion. They need the game to have weight. When it’s a sleepy shift in western Sydney or Tasmania, they drift. They drive their coach spare. When it’s all chips in, they are peerless.

Related: Brisbane Lions chase historic three-peat having remained AFL’s great constant | Jonathan Horn

The weather in Melbourne is … a reminder that this is a winter sport. It is currently 12C with an expected high of 15C. There is plenty of fog and a bit of drizzle hanging around though the forecast suggests the latter might clear up by about quarter-time.

The last properly soaked grand final in Melbourne was in 2011 when Geelong ran away from Collingwood for their third flag in five years. But the Cats win against the Saints two years earlier is another that remains burned in my memory (humble brag: I was there!) for the tough and tight contest that wet and wild conditions can bring. The 2020 grand final played at the Gabba was another slippery clash when heavy storms and rain lashed Brisbane hours before the opening bounce.

Preamble

Hello and welcome to live coverage of the AFL grand final between Fremantle and Brisbane. After more matches than in any previous AFL season we have finally arrived at our destination with this year’s minor premiers meeting the two-time reigning premiers at the MCG.

Fremantle are one win away from finally sealing their own fairytale ending. The Dockers have had more lows than highs across their 32 years in the league. But all that pain could be washed away with a victory against the Lions in the two teams’ first finals encounter. Justin Longmuir’s side have already broken new ground with 19 now their most wins in a home-and-away campaign off the back of a club record 14-match winning streak between rounds one and 16. Whether the Dockers throw the biggest monkey off their back and win a first AFL premiership will be decided at about 5.30pm AEST/3.30pm AWST today.

Brisbane have their own slice of history all but in their grasp as they hunt a premiership three-peat that would underline their status as both a modern-day great team and the powerhouse club of this century. This is the Lions’ fourth straight grand final and a third consecutive triumph would make them just the second club to win a pair of premiership three-peats in VFL/AFL history. Chris Fagan’s finals-hardened side rarely make life easy for themselves and again had the main character energy of Lachie Neale taking centre stage in the build up to the biggest game of the year. But all this should be like second nature to the Lions with only two players – first-year recruits Sam Draper and Oscar Allen – on the grand stage for the first time.

This is the grand final matchup that was widely predicted late in the season as Fremantle booked a top-two spot with a few weeks up their sleeve and soon claimed the club’s second AFL minor premiership, while Brisbane were thought to have a clear path to the decider with the embattled Sydney their first opponent in the finals. But both the Dockers and Lions were forced to take a longer route through a home semi-final and a remarkable preliminary final victory on the road to book their spot in the grand final.

First ball-up in Melbourne will be at 2.30pm AEST / 12.30pm AWST – possibly the last time the grand final will start at the traditional time. I’ll be seeing us through the pre-match hype and entertainment before Geoff Lemon takes the reins for the main event. There is more than enough action to keep us busy as Kylie hits the stage, G Flip gets things warmed up and Mike Brady belts out his usual classics. Meanwhile, let us know your tips and predictions, and any other thoughts on how the game will play out – shoot me an email or find me on Bluesky @martinpegan.bsky.social. Let’s get into it!