How to choose your grassroots prime minister?
One thing to watch out for is how the Student List will pick its top figures, including the next prime minister and their presidential candidate.
One of the key features of the movement so far is that everything has been covered by very extensive and time-consuming consultations with student plenum meetings across the country, including the vetting of all candidates on the electoral list.
That may, of course, not always be possible in the future given the urgency some decisions will demand. The students will quickly need to figure out how to streamline these decision-making processes and make them work at the pace governing demands.
It may be easier to run a similarly complex process to choose their presidential candidate, as there is still some time to go until the vote in late December, but less so when it comes to the top jobs in the government, starting from the prime minister, and his key ministers.
“There is almost certainly going to be a complex process. It will not be decided by a small group of people sitting somewhere in a room. It’s only a matter of how complicated it will be,” Nikola Burazer, programme director at the Belgrade-based thinktank Centre for Contemporary Politics explained.
“It will have to be sped up because the process of choosing candidates for the list actually took a long time, months, to finish … [and finished] literally one day before they submitted the list. So, it has to be shorter.”
And the constitutional deadlines (16:31) will “force them to choose their candidates more quickly,” Aleksandar Ivkocić, a researcher at the Centre for Contemporary Politics added.
Former central bank governor Dejan Šoškić, who in 2012 resigned two years into the job in protest against alleged interference with his independence, is widely seen as the frontrunner for the job of the prime minister, but let’s see what other names can come up and who can emerged unscathed through the vetting process.
“After people are done celebrating and thinking about what happened yesterday, we will focus a bit more on what’s coming up, and how the government will look. 24 hours ago that all seemed like a fantasy to us,” Burazer said.
What's next in Serbia - timeline
In terms of next steps in Serbia, here is what we know for now.
We are still waiting for the final election results: more than 97% polling station are now counted, but there are some localised issues that may even, in extreme cases, prompt a revote in some individual polling stations.
None of this will affect the overall result, but may cause a delay of a week or two from today.
Once the results are published, the National Assembly needs to meet for the first time within 30 days – that gets us to early to mid-December at the latest – starting the 90 days deadline for forming the new government.
This in itself will be fascinating as we have no idea who could emerge as the next prime minister given the leaderless nature of the Student List. Expect lots of speculation on this in the coming weeks, with former central bank governor Dejan Šoškić often mentioned as a possible candidate.
It’s worth saying that given the Student List will have a majority in the new parliament, they are very unlikely to need to run the clock down, and so the process can be well accelerated: many experts expect the new government to take over in December at the latest.
That timing is convenient for one more reason: following Vučić’s resignation as president to run for parliament, Serbia must hold a presidential election to choose a new head of state before the end of the year (well, by 27 December).
A close Vučić ally, Ana Brbabić, is currently the acting president as the last speaker of the parliament. Once we have a new speaker – presumably from the Student List – he or she will take over that interim role from here until the new leader gets elected.
That should make for an exciting end to the year in Serbia, with all change at the top going into 2027.
Updated
Serbian election marred by 'grave misuse of public resources' and 'intimidation of voters,' observers say
The preliminary report from international observers is also now out in writing, if you fancy reading it in full.
“Serbia’s 25 October early parliamentary elections saw active citizen engagement, with high voter turnout and vigorous competition between two main contenders, but unfolded in an atmosphere of profound polarisation, with equality of campaign opportunities seriously compromised, international observers said in a preliminary statement released today.
Entrenched advantages enjoyed by the ruling party, including the grave misuse of public resources, together with intimidation and pressure on voters, alongside disruptions of campaign activities, further marred the electoral environment, the statement says.”
The report is here.
International observers warn of issues with social media's impact on elections
Ireland’s Eoghan Murphy, who heads the ODIHR’s mission, goes into much more detail than other politicians on various technical issues in Serbia.
He talks in detail about the abuse of state resources for campaigning purposes, instances of intimidation and confrontation during the campaign, and serious issues spotted on social media and in traditional media.
This last point is particularly relevant as it feels it could just as well apply to most countries with elections coming up.
He warns that online campaigning “remains largely unregulated,” with “no dedicated oversight mechanism, safeguards … or accountability.”
“We don’t know how social media platforms prioritise and amplify such content, which harms transparency, and this reinforces the need for oversight and for safeguards.”
Sounds familiar?
He also makes it very clear that Serbia’s state media were way too involved in the election, with “pronounced imbalances in exposure and treatment of contestants, contrary to its legal obligations and public service mandate.”
“Overall, most monitored broadcasters failed to provide voters with the substantive and impartial information necessary to make an informed choice.”
Updated
Italian MP Federica Onori, for the OSCE PA delegation, talks about the problems with diaspora vote, which saw people stand in endless queues, including in London.
“The arrangements for voting abroad raised concerns about the disproportionate inconvenience of voters in certain countries due to the absence of clear and objective criteria regarding polling stations, locations, and voting hours.”
Austrian MEP Andreas Schieder, head of the European parliament’s mission, also flags this problem, and says “this needs to change in the future.”
Updated
Italian MP Pierro Fassino, head of the parliamentary assembly of Council of Europe’s delegation and an Italian MP in his own right, is up next.
He says the election took place in a “calm and responsible manner … despite the polarised” atmosphere, with the electoral process passing the assessment at 96% of the polling stations observed.
The press conference continues along these lines, so I will flag if anyone disagrees with this view – or say anything particularly exciting about their experience of monitoring the vote.
International observers conclude with preliminary 'positive' assessment of Serbia vote, despite major structural issues
Special coordinator and Luxembourgish MP Gilles Baum is now speaking at the presentation of the international observers’ preliminary verdict on the election.
He says the election “unfolded in the atmosphere of profound polarisation, with the equality of campaign opportunity seriously compromised” through “entrenched advantages enjoyed by the ruling party.”
He also talks about the suspected “misuse of state resources together with intimidation and pressure on voters, candidates and civil society, as well as disruption of campaign activities.”
He warns that despite previous recommendations, “widespread distrust in the integrity of the voter registration persisted.”
But the mission’s on the day observation concludes with “positive” assessment of all stages of the election day process “in the vast majority of polling stations observer.”
“Nevertheless, reported incidents of physical violence raised serious concerns, and some procedural shortcomings were noted,” he says.
Updated
The main group of international observers – including OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights and the European parliament - is about to deliver their preliminary verdict on the Serbian election, with a press conference in Belgrade.
I will keep an eye on this and bring you the key lines.
Most of the student list’s 250 candidates were experts from fields including academia and the arts with little political experience.
We are still waiting for the official confirmation of the exact names that will sit in the new parliament, but given their roots in academia they may very well have a chance to be among the best educated parliamentary caucuses in Europe. More than 160 of the 250 candidates held a PhD!
(But, perhaps a little-known fact, none of them were actually students; they were picked by students.)
As explained yesterday, the movement has a broad platform, centred on a pledge to fight corruption.
It evolved from demands for a transparent investigation into the Novi Sad tragedy into calls for an early election.
The movement deliberately kept foreign policy issues, including Serbia’s relationship with the European Union and longtime ally Russia, in the background.
Updated
‘This is a symbol for Europe’: streets of Belgrade resound with joy after Vučić defeat
Ana Milosavljevic in Belgrade and Ashifa Kassam
Standing on the streets of Belgrade, as passing cars honked excitedly and revellers high-fived police officers, Sara, 24, gestures to the streets around her to explain just how much things had changed for Serbia’s student-led movement.
Moments earlier, the country’s longstanding leader, Aleksandar Vučić, had conceded defeat to the student movement, ushering in a seismic political shift in the Balkan country.
It was a surreal reversal of fortunes for the hundreds of thousands of people who had spent nearly two years peacefully protesting against a ruling power that had become increasingly authoritarian.
“It’s very strange that on the very streets where the police beat us, on the streets where we retreated countless times in the face of the gendarmerie, we are now standing here as the victors.”
Related: ‘This is a symbol for Europe’: streets of Belgrade resound with joy after Vučić defeat
If you want to catch up with last night’s wild celebrations in Belgrade, here are two quick videos for you to get an idea of what the party atmosphere on the streets of the capital was like.
CRTA’s Raša Nedeljkov is currently presenting the organisation’s preliminary findings on last night’s elections, with a long list of reasons and issues that essentially make the Student List’s win against the incumbents even more impressive.
He says that “systemic manipulation at the polling stations was largely prevented” by the record-high number of domestic observers – up to 15,000, three times more than in 2023 – and usual citizens getting involved in running polling stations.
He says international observers also played a role in the process, but they had a “different role,” without permanent structures in place to observe broader, systemic abuses.
Summing up yesterday’s vote, he says there were still clear issues with voter identification, the use of UV lamps (we explained what they use them for yesterday), and how polling stations were set up, and calls for an urgent reform of the system.
“Re-establishing the integrity of elections should be among the top priorities of the new legislative and executive authority and seen as the foundation for the recovery of democratic institutions in Serbia,” he said.
“Serbia should never again participate in elections that … were marked by the misuse of state and public resources,” he said, with “significant efforts to bring the flow of information under the total control of the government,” with attacks on media and social media as well as attempts to discredit election observers.
He says that he still believes the state capture by Vučić’s ruling party influenced the result of the election, given voter intimidation and state-media propaganda.
“You had one political leader [Vučić] who had public addresses in our media more than 500 times, on camera, live, on average 30 minutes. Give me a country in the world, except North Korea, that has this kind of [single-party] dominance in the media.”
Election monitors in Serbia set to present preliminary findings
Back to Serbia, we are expecting to hear from two groups of election monitors in the coming hours: first, very shortly, from Serbia’s Center for Research, Transparency and Accountability (CRTA), and then a bit later from a group of international observers, including from the OSCE, the ODIHR, and the European parliament.
I will keep an eye on their findings and bring you the key lines.
Updated
Government to announce 'strong measures' to assuage social protests, Macron says
And we have just heard from France’s Emmanuel Macron who said PM Lecornu will announce “strong measures” to assuage protests in the country, while noting that next weekend could nevertheless bring the risk of more unrest.
“I have also asked the government to respond to the legitimate demands that lie at the root of this social movement,” he told reporters on a surprise visit to Marseille.
Make or break time for French government on high school protests
in Paris
In France, it is make or break time for the government on high school protests, which continued over the weekend.
Related: Hundreds of thousands march across France in protests over schools and policing
More than five weeks after the start of school blockades, student representatives and then teachers’ unions will meet the prime minister, Sébastien Lecornu, this afternoon.
Lecornu is under growing pressure to answer demands to address teacher shortages, a lack of school nurses, overcrowded classes, and to ensure repairs to high schools that have collapsing ceilings, leaks, windows that don’t shut, holes in walls or rats and cockroaches, or where there aren’t enough chairs for students to sit on.
Related: How dilapidated are French schools and how bad is inequality in the education system?
High school protestors are also asking for changes to the university applications platform, Parscoursup.
Students’ groups have said they would continue their protest movement if the government does not act.
The education minister, Édouard Geffray, is expected to announce what the government called “very concrete” measures at 5:30pm Paris time.
The former governor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau, told French radio this morning that the government had to “be creative” to find solutions to school children’s “legitimate demands”, because France was facing a serious budget crisis. He said France has “no extra money in the till” and is “strangled by debt”.
Related: French borrowing costs overtake US amid budget turmoil
Bulgarian presidential race goes to runoff on Sunday
Speaking of elections across Europe, more than 95% of ballots have now been counted in yesterday’s presidential vote in Bulgaria, prompting a runoff this Sunday.
The acting president and former vice-president, Iliana Iotova – a close ally of the prime minister, Rumen Radev – will take on the pro-European former reformist caretaker prime minister Andrey Gyurov in the second round.
Iotova topped the poll last night with 34.6% of the vote, with Gyurov trailing closely behind at 32%, with a record-low projected turnout of just 22%.
We will no doubt return to this topic closer to the end of the week.
Swedish centrist leader says latest government coalition talks failed
And since we mentioned Sweden’s reaction to the vote in Serbia, let’s bring you the latest on the increasingly complicated state of talks about forming the next government in the country.
It has been 43 days since last month’s election, and very little progress has been made.
Swedish Centre Party leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist said this morning that she was handing the process of forming a government back to parliament speaker Andreas Norlen, as widely expected, as she concluded that there was no majority for a centrist government.
Earlier, the Social Democrat leader Magdalena Andersson failed in her exploratory talks, too.
The speaker will now have to decide whether he hands the task of government formation to another leader, or forces a parliamentary vote on Thand Ringqvist’s candidacy.
Forcing a vote would burn the second of the four attempts permitted by the constitution in the government formation process – even though such a vote would almost certainly be doomed to fail.
A fourth failed attempt automatically triggers snap elections. Norlén is therefore likely to use all the leverage at his disposal to ramp up pressure on party leaders, hoping to break the deadlock without sending Swedes back to the polls.
Germany's Merz, Sweden's Kristersson join in congratulations for Serbian students
More European leaders have now logged in after the weekend and are sending their congratulations to Serbia’s Student List after their win over Vučić last night.
Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said:
“There have been changes in Serbia – a victory of the Student List @studentblokade. And this is clearly a new chapter in the history of the country and its people. We wish Serbia success, real development, and warm relations with the European community.
We in Ukraine thank Serbia for respecting our people, our state, and our independence. And we always celebrate our shared achievements – everything that strengthens our societies and gives people more opportunities. We are ready to continue expanding our cooperation, and may all the good hopes of the people of Serbia come true!”
Germany’s chancellor Friedrich Merz said:
“The parliamentary elections in Serbia are clearly decided. We congratulate the Student List! With its demands for the rule of law, the fight against corruption, and fundamental freedoms, it has reached the people. We will actively support Serbia’s European path.”
Sweden’s caretaker prime minister Ulf Kristersson said:
“Congratulations to the Student List on its decisive victory and to the people of Serbia that turned out in record numbers to choose their future. This is an opportunity to strengthen democracy, the rule of law, and the fight against corruption. Sweden continues to support reforms that underpin Serbia’s EU accession.”
Estonia’s foreign minister Margus Tsakhna said:
“The people of Serbia have made their voices heard. Congratulations to the Student List @studentblokade on its electoral victory.
Their calls for democracy, the rule of law and the fight against corruption reflect the importance of building trust in democratic institutions.
Estonia stands ready to share its experience in strengthening democratic institutions, ensuring media freedom and advancing e-governance. We are ready to work with Serbia towards a democratic, prosperous future in Europe.”
Reporters without Borders say 'press freedom predator' Vučić's defeat offers chance to 'restore media freedom'
Press freedom organisation Reporters without Borders welcomed the defeat of “press freedom predator” Aleksandar Vučić and said it offered “a historic opportunity to restore media freedom.”
Here is their first take on last night’s results:
“The defeat of press freedom predator Aleksandar Vucic by the opposition movement Student List in the Sunday parliamentary election offers a historic opportunity to restore media freedom. RSF hails the courageous work of all journalists who resisted Vucic’s oppression for more than a decade.”
Kremlin hopes new Serbian government understands value of cooperation with Moscow
We are also getting the first reaction to last night’s vote from Moscow.
The Kremlin said “it hopes Serbia’s new rulers understand that cooperation with Moscow is in their own country’s interests,” and that it would want to “continue to develop ties with Serbia, but it takes two to tango,” Reuters reported.
In recent years, Aleksandar Vučić was a rare European voice calling for “dialogue” with Russia and not shying away from visiting Moscow, even during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
This put him close to the EU’s awkward squad with Hungary’s now-ousted Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico (up for re-election next year, where he is likely to struggle.)
The Student List’s policy on Russia is likely to look quite different in style – don’t expect their leader, whoever it may be, to attend Moscow’s Victory Parade, for instance – but will not necessarily see a major shift in substance, given Serbia’s close economic and energy ties with Moscow (including so many Russian émigrées finding their new home in Belgrade to escape sanctions).
Vučić used his concession speech last night to claim the incoming government would adopt sanctions against Moscow by spring, despite polling showing that a clear majority of over 60% of the public opposes such a move.
But putting his sour grapes rhetoric aside, that looks improbable. In fact, the Student List explicitly stated in its manifesto that it wants to retain “the traditional partnership” with Russia and will oppose any punitive measures against Moscow.
I explained a bit more on that on our election night blog last night.
Hungary's Magyar 'feeling nostalgic' about pictures of celebrations in Serbia
Hungary’s prime minister Péter Magyar – who came into power after ousting Viktor Orbán earlier this year – is clearly emotionally invested in the events in Serbia.
After posting several times last night and drawing (somewhat imperfect, but understandable) parallels between the two victories, he is back at it this morning:
“Surely I wasn’t the only one feeling nostalgic when I saw those pictures coming out of Serbia last night? It’s symbolic that the “Budapest Express” reached Belgrade in politics before it did on the tracks.”
Morning opening: Serbia wakes up to new reality after Vučić
Serbia wakes up to a new reality this morning after a grassroots opposition movement led by students ousted the country’s former authoritarian president Aleksandar Vučić, raising hopes for a new opening in relations with the EU and other partners.
With 96.9% polling stations processed, the Student List has 52.6% of votes, well ahead of Vučić’s bloc at 39.22%.
The latest CeSID projection suggested the students will have 140 seats in the new parliament, well clear of the 126 required for majority, with 103 for Vucic’s bloc. No other party crossed the 3% threshold, with national minority parties taking the remaining seven seats.
We are likely to get more reactions to the vote today, with international observers set to present their preliminary report on the vote in the early afternoon.
I will also pick up the latest on the first round of the presidential vote in Bulgaria, which saw a record-low turnout of just 22%. The second round will be held this Sunday.
Elsewhere, I will be looking for updates from France and Italy after another rocky weekend of protests. French PM Sébastien Lecornu is going to meet with the student unions in the afternoon for what could be pivotal talks on the future of the demonstrations.
And E5 defence ministers – that’s France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the UK – are meeting in Paris for discussions on Ukraine. Oh, and Slovakia’s foreign minister Juraj Blanár is in Moscow for energy talks with Russia.
It’s Monday, 26 October 2026, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.
Good morning.
